posts – Tony's Blog

Expected goals, gamestate, and predictiveness

r

soccer

Is expected goals (xG) in neutral gamestates a better predictor of future performance than xG across all gamestates?

Estimating Shooting Performance Unlikeliness

r

soccer

Quantifying how unlikely a player’s season-long shooting performance is, factoring in their prior shot history

Ball Progression is All You Need

r

soccer

observablejs

Identifying where passes (even incomplete ones) have the most positive impact on the pitch.

Measuring manager performance in fantasy football

r

football (american)

All-play scores, optimal lineup choices, and more

Should we account for team quality in an xG model?

r

soccer

Finnicking around (with an xG model) and finding out

Game state with FBref data

r

soccer

Calculating expected goal difference (xGD) with respect to game state, using FBref data.

Calibrating Binary Probabilities

r

soccer

Using calibration to improve classifier model performance

Meta-Analytics for Soccer

r

soccer

To what extent does a state differentiate between players? How much does the stat’s value change over time?

Measuring Shooting Overperformance in Soccer

r

soccer

Using empirical Bayes and the Gamma-Poisson conjugate pair

xG Model Calibration

r

soccer

Evaluating Opta’s xG model performance with Brier skill score (BSS) and calibration curves

What exactly is an “expected point”? (part 2)

r

soccer

Evaluating how we can use match outcome probabilites for season-long insights

What exactly is an “expected point”? (part 1)

r

soccer

Calculating and comparing expected points from different expected goals sources

Yet Another (Advanced?) Soccer Statistic

r

soccer

Quantifying soccer pass networks with weighted maximum cuts

Tired: PCA + kmeans, Wired: UMAP + GMM

r

soccer

An Alternative to the Classic Approach to Dimension Reduction + Clustering

Quantifying Relative Soccer League Strength

r

soccer

With Atomic VAEP

Fantasy Football and the Classical Scheduling Problem

r

python

football (american)

Brute Force Programming Go Brrr

Decomposing and Smoothing Soccer Spatial Tendencies

r

soccer

With data.table, reticulate, and spatstat

Creating a Soccer Pitch Control Model

r

soccer

With S3 Classes and vctrs

Making a Pull Request

r

A Newbie’s Guide to Making A Pull Request (for an R package)