Tony’s Blog
  • About
  • Blog
  • Projects
Categories
All (19)
football (american) (2)
observablejs (1)
python (1)
r (19)
soccer (16)

Expected goals, gamestate, and predictiveness

r
soccer

Is expected goals (xG) in neutral gamestates a better predictor of future performance than xG across all gamestates?

Jun 19, 2024
Tony ElHabr

Estimating Shooting Performance Unlikeliness

r
soccer

Quantifying how unlikely a player’s season-long shooting performance is, factoring in their prior shot history

May 5, 2024
Tony ElHabr

Ball Progression is All You Need

r
soccer
observablejs

Identifying where passes (even incomplete ones) have the most positive impact on the pitch.

Apr 20, 2024
Tony ElHabr

Measuring manager performance in fantasy football

r
football (american)

All-play scores, optimal lineup choices, and more

Dec 31, 2023
Tony ElHabr

Should we account for team quality in an xG model?

r
soccer

Finnicking around (with an xG model) and finding out

Dec 29, 2023
Tony ElHabr

Game state with FBref data

r
soccer

Calculating expected goal difference (xGD) with respect to game state, using FBref data.

Oct 25, 2023
Tony ElHabr

Calibrating Binary Probabilities

r
soccer

Using calibration to improve classifier model performance

Sep 11, 2023
Tony ElHabr

Meta-Analytics for Soccer

r
soccer

To what extent does a state differentiate between players? How much does the stat’s value change over time?

Sep 8, 2023
Tony ElHabr

Measuring Shooting Overperformance in Soccer

r
soccer

Using empirical Bayes and the Gamma-Poisson conjugate pair

Aug 28, 2023
Tony ElHabr

xG Model Calibration

r
soccer

Evaluating Opta’s xG model performance with Brier skill score (BSS) and calibration curves

Feb 20, 2023
Tony ElHabr

What exactly is an “expected point”? (part 2)

r
soccer

Evaluating how we can use match outcome probabilites for season-long insights

Sep 5, 2022
Tony ElHabr

What exactly is an “expected point”? (part 1)

r
soccer

Calculating and comparing expected points from different expected goals sources

Sep 4, 2022
Tony ElHabr

Yet Another (Advanced?) Soccer Statistic

r
soccer

Quantifying soccer pass networks with weighted maximum cuts

Jan 31, 2022
Tony ElHabr

Tired: PCA + kmeans, Wired: UMAP + GMM

r
soccer

An Alternative to the Classic Approach to Dimension Reduction + Clustering

Jun 30, 2021
Tony ElHabr

Quantifying Relative Soccer League Strength

r
soccer

With Atomic VAEP

Jun 26, 2021
Tony ElHabr

Fantasy Football and the Classical Scheduling Problem

r
python
football (american)

Brute Force Programming Go Brrr

Jan 11, 2021
Tony ElHabr

Decomposing and Smoothing Soccer Spatial Tendencies

r
soccer

With data.table, reticulate, and spatstat

Oct 14, 2020
Tony ElHabr

Creating a Soccer Pitch Control Model

r
soccer

With S3 Classes and vctrs

Sep 23, 2020
Tony ElHabr

Making a Pull Request

r

A Newbie’s Guide to Making A Pull Request (for an R package)

Jan 20, 2019
Tony ElHabr
No matching items